EURODEFENSE International meeting of Presidents

Bucharest, 10 April 2025

Contribution to the EURODEFENSE Panel

Developments in early 2025 have only served to confirm the radical geopolitical changes now sweeping across Europe, in particular and the world, in general. The scale of these events is reminiscent of the fall of the Berlin Wall but this time the mood is not one of hope but of pessimism and dismay.

The blows delivered almost daily by a new American administration out to overturn the established order and give the USA an even sharper competitive edge, including over its allies, with scant regard for strategic or ethical considerations are proving a rude awakening for the Europeans. While Russia’s aggressive onslaught on a country in the heart of Europe, in defiance of international law, already sent shock waves across the continent, yet another seemingly unimaginable development is now taking place. This time, the ‘black swan’ is the result of the highly improbable commonality of American and Russian interests at the expense of Ukrainians and Europeans.

Reeling from a mixture of shock and disbelief, the European allies have suddenly become bitterly and disturbingly aware of the extent to which they depend on the United States for their security & defence. The over 70 billion euros invested in recent years in the American defence industry, notably for procurement of the F35, in a bid to keep the USA on side, have clearly been wasted or, worse still, counterproductive.

Now left to their own devices in strategic terms, Europeans will have to close ranks and demonstrate greater solidarity. The challenge is, however, threefold and consists:

• in the short term, of continuing to support Ukraine by filling the breach left by America’s withdrawal and partnering the current ceasefire negotiations;
• in the medium term, of adapting Europe’s main collective defence instrument(NATO) by substantially increasing their contributions to its command structures and gradually replacing American strategic support capabilities poised to disappear;
• in the long term, of building up their military capabilities on a durable basis, by boosting the efficiency of Europe’s consolidated defence technical and industrial base and redesigning its defence and security structures in order to achieve true strategic autonomy in terms of both decision-making and action, including in relation to unpredictable or erratic partners.

These efforts will have to run in parallel, but their respective results will be achieved within different timeframes.

However, contrary to what our strategic rivals have long been claiming in their attempts to brainwash and destabilise our populations, the EU is not weak and without resources. It holds a number of strong cards: 450 million inhabitants and even 550 million if we include its closest European partners such as the UK, Norway and Switzerland, the world’s 2nd biggest economy with a GDP of 20 trillion euros, recognised talents in all sectors, experience acquired from its long and rich history, the rule of law, etc. These are all strengths that largely offset any weaknesses.

Despite its regional focus, the EU has global interests and must be prepared to defend them everywhere and, in every dimension, since most external and internal crises are interconnected, both in terms of their protagonists and their impact.

The EU must not be ashamed of its power of attraction and must make the most of it. Whatever the history, Europeans must defend the right of peoples to self-determination on the European continent.

It is in times of crisis that Europe shows its ability to step up to the plate. Several stumbling blocks considered unsurmountable have now been removed, not least with the unexpected yet welcome step taken by the incoming German Chancellor, in his insistence on the need for his country to invest fully in a European defence worthy of the name to shake off its dependency on the USA, or the EU’s historic decision to exclude defence spending from the excessive deficit procedure to ease the European defence effort. Together with the timely publication of the White Paper on the Future of European Defence, these factors are indicative of the growing collective awareness of EU Member States of the need to take immediate action to defend their own interests. They represent an excellent starting point for such a move.

If the EU remains confident and united and takes the firm decision to regain its status as a world power, it will be able to rise to the challenges facing it together with those of its partners in NATO that so wish and other liberal democracies believing in the rule of law. It will then be able to use its strengths to underpin its ambitions and its vision of the world.

It goes without saying that the road ahead will be riddled with potential pitfalls and that the task facing Europe is enormous. Through its members, EuroDéfense will continue to play its catalytic role and contribute actively to common efforts to achieve a stronger, more strategic and more independent European defence.

Jean-Marc Vigilant

President of EuroDéfense-France